Another factor contributing to Shiite resurgence in Iraq is that it is supported by the political leadership in neighboring Iran, who are eager to capitalize on the removal of their longtime enemy Saddam to expand their influence across the Middle East and the Islamic world. It was clear to me through my relationship with Governor Tahan, and others now governing Baghdad, that these individuals have strong bonds- political, familial, and financial- to associates governing in Tehran, and often pursue policies that may prove favorable to their Iranian supporters.
Prior to the January 2005 election, most political officials in Baghdad were local leaders with little affiliation to major political parties. These leaders were selected by their communities to serve on councils and manage the efforts of the public service authorities. Most worked very closely with the many NGOs and Civil Affairs specialists that provided advice and support to these leaders, and were very receptive to the democracy training provided in their communities.
However, much of this cadre of locally-minded and politically independent leaders was swept from power in the January elections because they were not affiliated with the well-organized, nationally-based parties; or if they were, they could not negotiate a high enough position on that party’s list to earn a seat. The election was run as a single-district, closed party-list vote; voters had to choose one among the hundreds of parties listed on the ballot. Seats in the councils were allocated to the winning parties, and party bosses gave those seats to hard-core party loyalists. This new group of politicians is not beholden to any geographical constituencies; they serve at the pleasure of their party leadership.
Since these party bosses and their hard-core followers more often than not are closely connected to the Shia exile community recently arrived from Iran, the end result is that a fairly high degree of influence over even local political activity can be exercised in favor of Iranian interests.
Members of the Provincial Council negotiated loan packages with the government in Tehran, and many eagerly sought to increase Iranian business influence over Baghdad’s reconstruction contracts. Connections between these Iraqi Shiites and their Iranian neighbors are logical, natural and for the most part mutually beneficial, considering Iran and Iraq’s long and complex history.
