Governor Tahan, chosen by the Provincial Council elected in January 2005 to be the chief executive of Baghdad, is one of many leaders in the new Iraq that embody the seismic political shift that Iraqi society is facing. History may reflect on many of the consequences of the U.S. decision to depose Saddam’s regime, but one of the most significant must be the reversal of the Sunni/Shia power relationship in Iraq, and its aftershocks across the entire Middle East. Several significant factors have coalesced to ensure Shiite dominance of Iraq in the foreseeable future.
Demographic trends in Iraq have seen the explosion of the mainly poor Shia population in the past thirty years. Many Sunnis still do not realize that they are now a true minority in a country that they have led for generations.
The January 2005 election cemented political control across Iraq for the Shia coalition of mainly religious-based, populist, and Iranian-sponsored parties. This election determined the make up of the national assembly, as well as each of the provincial councils. The Sunni boycott, and subsequent non-participation during the critical transition period last year was a strategic error that played directly into the hands of the Shia, who now rule the apparatus of state control, and dictate the provision of social services to the population. Moderates and independents also fared poorly at the polls; the Shia coalition received support from both the edicts of religious leaders, and the get-out-the-vote mobilization of Shiite militia groups – two powerful factors in Iraqi society.
For example, the Baghdad Provincial Council with which I worked was made up nearly completely of parties associated with the Shia coalition, and with 28 out of 51 seats held by just one of those parties, SCIRI. With a sizable minority population of nearly 35%, Baghdad Sunnis have no representation in their provincial government. Even if they fully commit to participation, Baghdad Sunnis will have a difficult time wresting political power from such an entrenched majority, who are determined to hold it at all costs.
National Sunni parties made some inroads by participating in the December 2005 elections for the National Assembly and have begun to agitate for another round of provincial elections, but the power of incumbency makes further success a daunting challenge.
