Following

Just got back from downtown. I hit the provincial reconstruction meeting where the politicians and engineers are hashing out how they are going to spend about $10million over the next month, and manage $100million over the next six. The Provincial Council meets in a building that was once the cinema studies institute. Pretty tall for Baghdad, at 7 stories. Unfortunately, it is in danger of collapsing. They took us on a tour and we inspected the concrete columns for buckling. One side of the building has wrinkled about 6-8 inches. But this wasn’t damage sustained by being bombed during the war. It was damage sustained when the building across the street was destroyed by a bomb. The shockwave rocked the building and when it settled, the columns on one side were compressed. The engineers concluded that it would be wise to look into an alternate site for the Council. I concluded it would be wise for me to look into an alternate place to be standing right then. But the Council doesn’t want to move, as it would entail leaving some prime property- there aren’t that many other 7 story buildings that you can squat in these days.One of the big debates surrounding the new constitution is the role of federalism in a new Iraq. This debate inevitably gets entwined with overtones of the Sunni /Shia / Kurd relationship, but frankly it’s less about identity and all about the money. The provinces don’t yet have budgetary authority- everything comes down from the ministries in Baghdad. The provincial government is made up of local offices of the national ministries: defense, health, education, agriculture, etc. but the Governor- the provincial executive- has no authority over any spending that those offices do; that comes from their respective national ministers dictated from the highest levels of central government. But each of the provinces have been forming committees where they’ve gained authority over the money donated (by the US Congress) for reconstruction projects. I was observing this process in Tikrit, and now I’ve been tasked to do it here in Baghdad. The degree to which the central Iraqi government spins off the authority to control spending at the provincial level will be the true indicator as to what degree of federalism is contained within the new constitution. The other issue facing these governments is where the money is going to come from in the future. Everybody is counting on oil, and it’s just not going to be the solution. Very soon, provincial governments will have to face the fact that they are going to have to figure out how to tax. And that will be the real test for these new governments.