Initiate

The past couple of days have been pretty bad. Saw a lot of stuff blow up. Things were a mess downtown. The analysis is that this is Zarqawi’s declaration of war against the Shia, as well as being retribution for Tal Afar. I think this was the big attack we thought would coincide with the release of the constitution on August 15, but was delayed because that process got drawn out. They needed a good reason to go ahead and launch it anyway, and it helps their cause having both Talabani and Jaafari out of town. The psychology of Tet is very prevalent in their strategy. Spectacular attacks at significant political moments; attempts to legitimate this terrorism as civil war. He’s throwing the gauntlet down to the Shia to see if they will side with the infidel, or strike back with factional militias. The former is a tactical victory allowing him to continue baiting the Iraqi government as a pawn of western imperialism, and the latter is a strategic victory intending to ignite the Arab world.